2007 Golden Globe Predictions
I'm hoping for some surprises tonight, but if the precursers are any indication then the winners have been preordained for weeks. Anyway here are my predictions:
BEST MOTION PICTURE - DRAMA
Preference: There Will Be Blood
Atonement has the most nominations, but No Country has all the heat. Seeing the HFPA go for the conventional choice (from a historic standpoint) wouldn't surprise me, but No Country is the movie of the moment, and will probably triumph here.
BEST ACTRESS - DRAMA
Preference - Julie Christie, Away from Her
This one's a no brainer. Or at least it seems to be. Could the HFPA surprise us all and go with youth over age and honor Keira Knightley? Stranger things have happened...and they obviously love Atonement. And stars...always the stars.
BEST ACTOR - DRAMA
Preference - Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood
Day-Lewis seems like a slam-dunk, but the Globes are a royal bunch of star-fuckers, so George Clooney winning for Michael Clayton would not be a shocker.
BEST MOTION PICTURE - COMEDY OR MUSICAL
Preference - Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
For reasons I will probably never understand, people LOVE Juno, which will probably carry it to a win here over the far more deserving Sweeney Todd. Likability usually trumps cinematic brilliance. Although, musicals have a history of winning here, so don't count it - or the more lighthearted Hairspray (which did very well for itself at the Critics Choice Awards) - out of the race.
BEST ACTRESS - MUSICAL OR COMEDY
Preference - Marion Cotillard, La Vie En Rose
Again, likability trumps brilliance. Cotillard's transcendent performance has had a woefully small showing in the precurser awards, and Juno is the movie of the moment right now, so I'm calling Page over Cotillard in a squeaker. Although, Cotillard's film is neither a musical, or a comedy. She belongs in the drama category, which may help her defeat the more lighthearted performances here.
BEST ACTOR - MUSICAL OR COMEDY
Preference - Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd
The HFPA LOVES Johnny Depp (they even nominated him last year for Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest), so look for him to triumph here.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Preference - Cate Blanchett, I'm Not There
Amy Ryan has all the heat, but Blanchett has star power, which may trump the Ryan juggernaut here. My guess is, though, that the HFPA will go with the crowd and honor Ryan in a percieved road to an Oscar coronation. The HFPA has been a poor precurser recently...and I have a feeling they will want to try to rectify that.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Preference - Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men
Another no-brainer in a night full of them. With the incomparable Hal Holbrook inexplicably absent from this race (John Travolta, really?), I have no problem supporting Bardem. Although it would be nice to see Hoffman get some recognition for a year's worth of extraordinary work.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Preference - Ratatouille
Duh.
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Preference - The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Romania's Palme D'Or winning 4 Months, 3 Weeks, and 2 Days could be a potential spoiler, but Diving Bell is well liked and obviously has support, since it is also nominated for Best Director, so look for it to triumph here.
BEST DIRECTOR
Preference - Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Again, the Coens have all the heat, but for me, Schnabel's achievement was the most brilliant and astonishing of these 5 nominees. He took the story of a paralyzed man who could only communicate with his left eyelid (through which most of the movie is seen), and turns it into one of the year's most expressive and original films.
BEST SCREENPLAY
Preference - No Country for Old Men
Juno, Juno, Juno. Gag. Although No Country could rain on Diablo Cody's parade (please God!) if they really REALLY like it. But Cody, fresh off her Critics Choice win has the real heat in this race.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Preference - Atonement
Without Jonny Greenwood's genius There Will Be Blood score in the running, this award is Marianelli's to lose. I mean, they have to give Atonement something, right? Although, the HFPA might not be able to pass up the opportunity to award Clint Eastwood, who could prove to be a spoiler here.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Preference - "That's How You Know," Enchanted
At last, an award for Into the Wild. Too bad it's for the wrong song, damn it. I'll be glad to see Wild win, but Enchanted's glorious production number is the real standout here. Just one question - where the hell is "Falling Slowly" from Once? Shame on you HFPA!
The Golden Globe newscast will be aired tonight on NBC and many other networks at 9:00 p.m. Eastern time.
BEST MOTION PICTURE - DRAMA
- American Gangster
- Atonement
- Eastern Promises
- The Great Debaters
- Michael Clayton
- No Country For Old Men
- There Will Be Blood
Preference: There Will Be Blood
Atonement has the most nominations, but No Country has all the heat. Seeing the HFPA go for the conventional choice (from a historic standpoint) wouldn't surprise me, but No Country is the movie of the moment, and will probably triumph here.
BEST ACTRESS - DRAMA
- Cate Blanchett – Elizabeth: The Golden Age
- Julie Christie – Away From Her
- Jodie Foster – The Brave One
- Angelina Jolie – A Mighty Heart
- Keira Knightley – Atonement
Preference - Julie Christie, Away from Her
This one's a no brainer. Or at least it seems to be. Could the HFPA surprise us all and go with youth over age and honor Keira Knightley? Stranger things have happened...and they obviously love Atonement. And stars...always the stars.
BEST ACTOR - DRAMA
- George Clooney – Michael Clayton
- Daniel Day-Lewis – There Will Be Blood
- James McAvoy – Atonement
- Viggo Mortensen – Eastern Promises
- Denzel Washington – American Gangster
Preference - Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood
Day-Lewis seems like a slam-dunk, but the Globes are a royal bunch of star-fuckers, so George Clooney winning for Michael Clayton would not be a shocker.
BEST MOTION PICTURE - COMEDY OR MUSICAL
- Across The Universe
- Charlie Wilson's War
- Hairspray
- Juno
- Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
Preference - Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
For reasons I will probably never understand, people LOVE Juno, which will probably carry it to a win here over the far more deserving Sweeney Todd. Likability usually trumps cinematic brilliance. Although, musicals have a history of winning here, so don't count it - or the more lighthearted Hairspray (which did very well for itself at the Critics Choice Awards) - out of the race.
BEST ACTRESS - MUSICAL OR COMEDY
- Amy Adams – Enchanted
- Nikki Blonsky – Hairspray
- Helena Bonham Carter – Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
- Marion Cotillard – La Vie En Rose
- Ellen Page – Juno
Preference - Marion Cotillard, La Vie En Rose
Again, likability trumps brilliance. Cotillard's transcendent performance has had a woefully small showing in the precurser awards, and Juno is the movie of the moment right now, so I'm calling Page over Cotillard in a squeaker. Although, Cotillard's film is neither a musical, or a comedy. She belongs in the drama category, which may help her defeat the more lighthearted performances here.
BEST ACTOR - MUSICAL OR COMEDY
- Johnny Depp – Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
- Ryan Gosling – Lars and the Real Girl
- Tom Hanks – Charlie Wilson's War
- Philip Seymour Hoffman – The Savages
- John C. Reilly – Walk Hard: The Dewey Cox Story
Preference - Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd
The HFPA LOVES Johnny Depp (they even nominated him last year for Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest), so look for him to triumph here.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
- Cate Blanchett – I'm Not There
- Julia Roberts – Charlie Wilson's War
- Saoirse Ronan – Atonement
- Amy Ryan – Gone Baby Gone
- Tilda Swinton – Michael Clayton
Preference - Cate Blanchett, I'm Not There
Amy Ryan has all the heat, but Blanchett has star power, which may trump the Ryan juggernaut here. My guess is, though, that the HFPA will go with the crowd and honor Ryan in a percieved road to an Oscar coronation. The HFPA has been a poor precurser recently...and I have a feeling they will want to try to rectify that.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
- Casey Affleck – The Assassination Of Jesse James By The Coward Robert Ford
- Javier Bardem – No Country For Old Men
- Philip Seymour Hoffman – Charlie Wilson's War
- John Travolta – Hairspray
- Tom Wilkinson – Michael Clayton
Preference - Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men
Another no-brainer in a night full of them. With the incomparable Hal Holbrook inexplicably absent from this race (John Travolta, really?), I have no problem supporting Bardem. Although it would be nice to see Hoffman get some recognition for a year's worth of extraordinary work.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
- Bee Movie
- Ratatouille
- The Simpsons Movie
Preference - Ratatouille
Duh.
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
- 4 Months, 3 Weeks And 2 Days (Romania)
- The Diving Bell And The Butterfly (France, United States)
- The Kite Runner (United States)
- Lust, Caution (Taiwan)
- Persepolis (France)
Preference - The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Romania's Palme D'Or winning 4 Months, 3 Weeks, and 2 Days could be a potential spoiler, but Diving Bell is well liked and obviously has support, since it is also nominated for Best Director, so look for it to triumph here.
BEST DIRECTOR
- Tim Burton – Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
- Ethan Coen, Joel Coen – No Country For Old Men
- Julian Schnabel – The Diving Bell And The Butterfly
- Ridley Scott – American Gangster
- Joe Wright – Atonement
Preference - Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Again, the Coens have all the heat, but for me, Schnabel's achievement was the most brilliant and astonishing of these 5 nominees. He took the story of a paralyzed man who could only communicate with his left eyelid (through which most of the movie is seen), and turns it into one of the year's most expressive and original films.
BEST SCREENPLAY
- Atonement
Written by Christopher Hampton - Charlie Wilson's War
Written by Aaron Sorkin - The Diving Bell And The Butterfly
Written by Ronald Harwood - Juno
Written by Diablo Cody - No Country For Old Men
Written by Ethan Coen, Joel Coen
Preference - No Country for Old Men
Juno, Juno, Juno. Gag. Although No Country could rain on Diablo Cody's parade (please God!) if they really REALLY like it. But Cody, fresh off her Critics Choice win has the real heat in this race.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
- Grace Is Gone
Composed by Clint Eastwood - The Kite Runner
Composed by Alberto Iglesias - Atonement
Composed by Dario Marianelli - Eastern Promises
Composed by Howard Shore - Into The Wild
Composed by Michael Brook, Kaki King and Eddie Vedder
Preference - Atonement
Without Jonny Greenwood's genius There Will Be Blood score in the running, this award is Marianelli's to lose. I mean, they have to give Atonement something, right? Although, the HFPA might not be able to pass up the opportunity to award Clint Eastwood, who could prove to be a spoiler here.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
- "Despedida" – Love In The Time Of Cholera
Music By: Shakira and Antonio Pinto
Lyrics By: Shakira - "Grace Is Gone" – Grace Is Gone
Music By: Clint Eastwood
Lyrics By: Carole Bayer Sager - "Guaranteed" – Into The Wild
Music & Lyrics By: Eddie Vedder - "That's How You Know" – Enchanted
Music By: Alan Menken
Lyrics By: Stephen Schwartz - "Walk Hard" – Walk Hard: The Dewey Cox Story
Music & Lyrics By: Marshall Crenshaw, John C. Reilly, Judd Apatow and Jake Kasdan
Preference - "That's How You Know," Enchanted
At last, an award for Into the Wild. Too bad it's for the wrong song, damn it. I'll be glad to see Wild win, but Enchanted's glorious production number is the real standout here. Just one question - where the hell is "Falling Slowly" from Once? Shame on you HFPA!
The Golden Globe newscast will be aired tonight on NBC and many other networks at 9:00 p.m. Eastern time.
Comments